Stephen Hawking poses a paradox for astrophysicists: the accepted story about event horizons may not be true. I’m not going to pretend like I know what all of this is about. I just wanted to make a quick observation that relates this to economics.
If astrophysics had the same weight in public policy as economics, there would be a significant chunk of scientists — and an army of amateurs — yelling about anti-scientism, obvious errors nobody but them are aware of, and how clearly the facts are on their side. And, their readers would be misguided into believing that there are easy answers in astrophysics, even when the complexity of the problem grows. Anybody who disagreed with these easy answers would be clearly corrupted by politics, ideology, and money.
But, astrophysics, like economics, deals with complex problems, and complex problems have complex solutions. The problem and the solution are usually very difficult to grasp without abstracting from some aspect of it, and our research will, at best, offer incomplete answers. Scientists will come up with divergent theories, because of the way they interpret the problem and depending on what they abstract from. This is a reality we should come to accept; it’s a reality that the institutions of science try to grapple with. The more cynical scientists are typically those who don’t fully embrace this reality.