Healthcare Expectations

Krugman interprets evidence to show how Obamacare has been a success and has not been the job-killers Republicans said it would be. I have two three questions on his second piece of evidence,



  1. This series isn’t seasonally adjusted is it? So, it shows a growth in employment leading up to December and then a large drop in employment. And now employment is growing again as we approach summer. So, does this graph really say anything useful at all?
  2. An economist might suspect that the disemployment effect would actually materialize sooner, because surely businesses were expecting Obamacare to roll out before it actually did. Krugman knows this, but he’s still going for the weak version of the argument. Why?
  3. What if, rather than unemployment, Obamacare reduced the rate of employment growth?

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