Daniel Kuehn brings up (“Krugman on Hangover Theory“) what he believes to be a valid objection by Paul Krugman (“The Hangover Theory“). Kuehn writes,
Krugman makes the point that whatever matching problems are out there, and to whatever extent matching problems and malinvestments may explain unemployment rate differentials (we had a housing bust… the fact that construction workers are out of work after a housing bust is common sense), they do not explain the staggering collapse of employment across all sectors.
Which gets me back to what I continue to ask of Austrians – don’t explain to me ABCT over and over again. I understand ABCT. I even believe ABCT. Give me a reason to believe that is the primary force behind the downturn right now, rather than the secondary or the tertiary force.
I think the final part of the argument is a bit unfair. Give a good reason why Austrian business cycle theory is not the primary force behind the downturn. As the person challenging the theory, the burden of proof is not on us (although, of course, it might shift to us out of interest in defending the theory). “A fall in aggregate demand” is not a good explanation; a fall in aggregate demand can occur for many different reasons. Austrian business cycle theory suggests that aggregate demand (in the broadest of sense, since Austrians dislike talking about aggregate demand) falls because of a loss in productivity (so, namely, a fall in demand for capital-goods).
In any case, I’d like to comment on the notion that Austrian business cycle theory does not explain why employment falls across sectors other than the housing market. Fortunately for Daniel Kuehn, the answer is not in Austrian business cycle theory, per sé. The answer is in Austrian capital theory, and understanding the time structure of production.
Fortunately, I gave a lecture that included an introduction to the structure of production, and so this is all pretty fresh on my mind. The structure of production can expand in two directions: vertically and horizontally. The typical depiction of the structure of production is the Hayekian triangle, which is a two-dimensional figure which represents the vertical expansion of the structure of production. On a basic level, the horizontal expansion of the structure of production would be represented on the z-axis.
From basic Austrian capital theory, we know that as capital accumulation increases, the structure of production becomes more roundabout. Investment is made in sectors farther away from the consumer. For example, if the final consumer good is an automobile, then a higher-order phase of production would be the manufacturing of the carburetor, and an even higher-order phase would be designing the carburetor. If we assume one line of production, this can be represented by the Hayekian triangle (of course, the Hayekian triangle doesn’t really account for what is called “dynamic capital theory”).
However, an increase in demand for a good in a particular stage of production will also tend to expand that stage horizontally. What is meant, following the example of the carburetor, is that an increase in production of carburetors will necessitate an increase in production of other capital-goods, or factors of production, relevant to the carburetor. This may not be directly relevant to the final consumer good, in this case the automobile (and there is a caveat here, as well—an automobile, like a house, may not even be a consumer-good in the strictest sense; this is where dynamic capital theory can be brought into play), but represents a lengthening of the structure of production.
The result is that the lengthening of the structure of production relative to one good can have the consequence of lengthening the structure of production relative to a myriad of other goods. In this fashion, the structure of production tends to expand over multiple sectors of the economy—a basic way of saying this is, different sectors become interdependent.
Only someone with a very poor understanding of Austrian business cycle theory, sorry Daniel, could claim that it only explains unemployment in the housing sector. This is a gross misunderstanding of the theory, and shows poor understanding of the underlying theories which lead to Austrian business cycle theory (that is, interest theory and capital theory). For all intents and purposes, Austrian theory predicts unemployment across a wide variety of sectors, and this ultimately affects both lower-order and higher-order industries.
Here it might be useful to describe what I consider a part of dynamic capital theory. The fact is that an economic-good’s classification in terms of what stage of production it is in can change based on the line of production it is ultimately invested into. The next good produced can then shift to another line of production, and so whereas the capital-good may have been six stages way from the consumer good at first, is now seven stages away. That is why in the real world it is not really useful to depict the structure of production using two-dimensional, or even three-dimensional, graphs or illustrations. There is simply no way of accurately illustrating dynamic capital theory (that I know of).
How is this relevant to the topic at hand? Well, I’ll offer a very basic illustration. Let’s say that because the structure of production relevant to the housing industry lengthens, there is an increase in demand and supply for nails. These nails might be X stages away from whatever stage the actual house represents (like I said with the automobile, I am wary of classifying a house as a strict consumer-good; durable consumer-goods are oftentimes considered capital-goods). However, if a box of nails is suddenly pitted towards another industry altogether (let us say, the construction of a lumber factory), then the stage it is at suddenly changes, as well.
While the lumber industry, in this case, is relevant to the housing industry, these kinds of switches can occur in industries which may not be directly related (as suggested above). This, as also mentioned above, causes the structure of production to intensify across multiple sectors. As a consequence of this interdependence (for lack of a better word), it only makes sense that a fall in productivity would affect several different sectors of an economy, not just the housing sector.
Really, in order to fully grasp Austrian theory, one has to delve into capital theory, as well (which is why most Austrian explanations of Austrian business cycle theory include an elementary explanation of capital theory). I admit, myself, that I have not spent enough time into capital theory (even though, I agree with Hayek that at a certain point it might not be worthwhile to pursue capital theory in terms of concretely laying down in literature the more complicated dynamics of capital theory).