Economic Thought Rotating Header Image

Stiglitz Does it Again!

I read my first book by Joseph Stiglitz last semester.  I read Making Globalization Work.  I will admit that it is absolute junk, and absolutely horrible to read, but since then I have become addicted to his writing.  It just makes great material to criticize.  As to not leave me bored, Stiglitz published yet another book: Freefall.  This time, he takes a wider look at the U.S. economy, the recent financial collapse, the role of the free-market and the current recession.  This should be rich.  I picked up a copy at the local Borders Bookstore and was thoroughly thrilled.  Instead of paying thirty dollars there, I have decided to order it online for almost half the price.

Critique will come soon!

It’s Just Common Sense

I just received my copy of Common Sense Economics, by L. Albert Hahn, from the Ludwig von Mises Institute.  I’ve only skimmed it, but it seems to be a more complete and rigorous version of Henry Hazlitt’s Economics in One Lesson.  While the latter focuses on the very basic mercantilist economic fallacies which pervade modern government, Hahn’s book deals more in depth with topics such as the business cycle, inflation, deflation, the stock market and the effect of government interventions.  From the Mises bookstore:

Professor Hahn, of the greatest but least known Austrian economists of his generation, offers a fantastic refutation of Keynesian macroeconomics including its wild obsession with effective demand, and also a systematic presentation of the Austrian theory of the business cycle.

It might have been common sense in his day, but it is surely not in ours. In our times (this book appeared in 1948) the truths he proves here are bracing. Prosperity comes from saving and investment. The printing press creates nothing and destroys plenty. The central bank has no tools that can get us out of recession and onto a sound footing. Intervention of all sorts creates more problems and solves none.

He writes with eloquence and scientific precision. He even gives us the first serious graphical comparison of the Keynesian v. Austrian views that appeared between Hayek and Garrison!

This book is a treasure, all but lost to history. This reprint brings it back in a big way and at the right time.

The book was attacked relentlessly in all the journal during the height of Keynesian hysteria. But it turns out that Hahn was right and his critics were wrong. Even to this day, it remains an outstanding discussion of the business cycle . In fact, it reads as if it appeared just last week.

May Hahn’s wisdom here once again become so known as to be common sense once again.

The Anatomy of Deflation

[Mises Daily,  18 August 2003.]

Fears of deflation, prominent a month or two ago, are now rapidly subsiding, and soon may disappear entirely. Nevertheless, deflation is still a subject about which it is important to have a correct understanding.

Deflation is usually thought to be a synonym for falling prices. There could be no more serious error in all of economics. Calling falling prices “deflation” results in a profound confusion between prosperity and depression. This is because the leading cause of falling prices is economic progress, whose essential feature is an increasing production and supply of goods and services, which, of course, operates to make prices fall.

Yet the term deflation is also closely associated with the phenomena of a plunge in business profits and a suddenly and substantially greater difficulty of repaying debts, with the consequence of widespread insolvencies and bankruptcies. The plunge in profits and sudden sharp increase in the burden of debt are, of course, leading symptoms of a depression.

Hence, the proximate cause of prosperity, namely, increasing production and supply, comes to be confused with depression and the widespread impoverishment that accompanies depressions. This, of course, is closely related to the absurdities of the overproduction doctrine, which claims that we are poor because we are rich.

What needs to be realized is that there are two distinct causes of generally falling prices. One is the increase in production and supply, which should never, never be confused with deflation, depression, or poverty. The other is a decrease in the quantity of money and or volume of spending in the economic system. Falling prices is the only effect that they have in common. They differ profoundly with respect to their other effects.[1] Continue reading →

The European Tragedy

Philipp Bagus beat me to the topic of debt and PIIGS in his very well written piece for Mises Daily:  The Bailout of Greece and the End of the Euro.  He comes to the same conclusion I did in my previous post on this blog:

Moreover, it is not clear if the government can stick to these small spending cuts, as there will be a general strike in February. In December 2008, Greece experienced riots against comparatively minor political reforms. As the majority of the population seems to be against spending cuts, the government may not be able to prevent the bankruptcy of the country.

As an associate professor at the Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, I am surprised that he decided to write on Greece and not on Spain.  I have been in the process of researching for an upcoming article on Spain and her liquidity problems.  The piece will be co-authored with Ángel Martín, who is an economist who writes for Libertad Digital.  To be honest, most of the research is his.  I’m simply putting his knowledge on the current Spanish debt crisis into an English essay, with the hope of having it published (as usual, a rough draft be posted here first).

Bagus’ article, however, gives me the sensation that a piece on Spain would be fairly similar and repetitive.  So, I am thinking of changing the topic of Ángel’s and my piece on the current debt crisis against the background of the general economic tragedy that Spanish history has been; it would therefore double as an analysis on the current situation, and as a very brief look at Spanish economic history (the “Golden Age”, the Primo de Rivera dictatorship and the resulting left-wing political resurgence during the Second Republic and finally the Franco regime and the democracy).

I was inspired by an emailing from my uncle, who is a professor at the Politécnica de Madrid, in which he admitted to just what degree he has given up in regards to hope for Spain’s future.  The Spanish government is seemingly more interested in being politically correct than in saving the Spanish economy.  Of course, I think for the most part my uncle is a conservative, but his insight still stands.  The Zapatero administration has been an absolute failure.  Yet, I am willing to bet that most Spaniards find themselves left of center.

Correction on “Dangerous Lessons of 1937″

I have a correction to make in my piece Dangerous Lessons of 1937, published as a Mises Daily on 2 February 2010.  The error was brought to my attention by Robert Murphy.  I write:

Within that time period, the stock of money increased by 46% and the general price level by 31%.

The figure is attributed to Milton Friedman.  The general price level increased by 11%, and wholesale prices increased by 31%.

Government Cannot Self-Regulate

The public sector protests in Greece should serve as a wake-up call for “big government” pundits.  Even suggestions at deficit-cutting government programs have sparked protests and riots, while a few weeks ago the government’s suggestion of cutting subsidies to farms was met with strikes and protests on the agricultural front.  Mises describes the concept of the crisis of interventionism:

Intervention aims at confiscating the “surplus” of one part of the population and at giving it to the other part.  Once this surplus is exhausted by total confiscation, a further continuation of this policy is impossible.

The Greek government, in a supposed attempt to avert the worst, has found itself hopelessly futile against itself.  It has grown so large that the different sectors of public spending impede each other from taking cost-cutting measures.  The result is political instability, rising spending and seemingly inevitable disaster.

What is clear is that however events turn out, the ultimate conclusion to this Greek quagmire will be a reduction of government.  Everybody should expect the same in countries such as Spain and the United States, as well.

Passion Comes from Liberty

A lightly edited version of my “Liberty as a Passion” was published on Mises Daily: Passion Comes from Liberty.  Yea, the original title doesn’t make much sense.  I realize that now.

The Pretence of Knowledge

[Originally presented as a lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel on 11 December, 1974.]

The particular occasion of this lecture, combined with the chief practical problem which economists have to face today, have made the choice of its topic almost inevitable. On the one hand the still recent establishment of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science marks a significant step in the process by which, in the opinion of the general public, economics has been conceded some of the dignity and prestige of the physical sciences. On the other hand, the economists are at this moment called upon to say how to extricate the free world from the serious threat of accelerating inflation which, it must be admitted, has been brought about by policies which the majority of economists recommended and even urged governments to pursue. We have indeed at the moment little cause for pride: as a profession we have made a mess of things.

It seems to me that this failure of the economists to guide policy more successfully is closely connected with their propensity to imitate as closely as possible the procedures of the brilliantly successful physical sciences – an attempt which in our field may lead to outright error. It is an approach which has come to be described as the “scientistic” attitude – an attitude which, as I defined it some thirty years ago, “is decidedly unscientific in the true sense of the word, since it involves a mechanical and uncritical application of habits of thought to fields different from those in which they have been formed.”1 I want today to begin by explaining how some of the gravest errors of recent economic policy are a direct consequence of this scientistic error.

Continue reading →

Garet Garrett’s Invaluable Lesson

The Bubble That Broke the WorldWith much of Western Europe and the United States buried in public debt, many have been left wondering as to how world governments will solve the problem.  Keynesian economists, such as Paul Krugman, argue that the growing debt will not be a problem, given that large government debts are not unprecedented.  For example, Krugman argues that the United States ran large debts during the Second World War, and was able to pay it off after the war ended.  The Harvard professor, and Nobel laureate, also argues that the United States is not the only country piling up debt, and so therefore public debt is justifiable and should be accepted as tenable.

Paul Krugman conveniently leaves out some key details, or fails to apply them to today’s situation.  Regarding the Second World War, he notes that the debt was paid off largely because of a cut in government spending.  He fails to account for the fact that the most dangerous factors behind the current debt are “unfunded liabilities” or the cost of our welfare and social insurance programs in the years to come.  As for those “other countries” also building debt, they are also on the verge of economic collapse.

Most onlookers have been able to see past these elementary flaws, and realize the potential danger of growing public debt.  Yet, this has eliminated the only major mainstream prediction of what is to come.  For most, the biggest threat is an increase in taxes, or a high tax rate for a prolonged period of time.  High taxes should be the least of worries.

The current fiscal situation is not unprecedented.  High public and private debt has been the bane of large governments for the entirety of written history.  It is what Ludwig von Mises described as the “crisis of interventionism”, in Human Action:

Intervention aims at confiscating the “surplus” of one part of the population and at giving it to the other part.  Once this surplus is exhausted by total confiscation, a further continuation of this policy is impossible.[1]

Put in simpler terms, the crisis of interventionism is summed up by the adage, “the problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.”[2]

While Mises laid down the theoretical foundations for the argument against big government and socialism, it was Garet Garrett who provided the empirical evidence for the lesson.  In 1931, amidst a global economic crisis, Garrett published a book by the name of The Bubble That Broke the World.  This relatively short book, largely forgotten today, provides one of the best and clearest arguments against the accumulation of public debt, and applies Mises’ “crisis of interventionism” theory to the crisis in Central Europe during the Great Depression.

Continue reading →

Deforation is the Tyranny of Government

One of the most pressing issues of our times is the environment. Global warming, deforestation, so on and so forth. It is widely held by the Left that this is the fault of corporations exploiting the plant genetic resources of the third world and overproducing, for the consumption of the Western bourgeois. In general, the only retort that the right has been able to muster has been to question global warming.

Now I don’t know whether global warming is true or not but that is certainly not the question: deforestation threatens to destroy the livelihoods of millions of human beings, in the rainforests and jungles of the world, from Borneo to Amazon. The very same principles of deforestation, though, occur all over the world; from Asia to Southern America.

Let’s examine exactly how the process occurs. A logging company wants to sell timber to a furniture company. They go to the respective Government of the country they plan to extract the resources from, and they probably pay a hefty bribe – it doesn’t matter either way, they get the rights from the Government to log the land, or they buy the land outright to be deforested. Anyone with a basic belief in Liberty will soon be able to spot the slight problem with the argument that this is a fault of the free market.

That land was not the Government’s to give away.

The local natives who live on that land and have to put up with the destruction of their natural habitat by Governments and logging corporations are right to wonder what right the Government had to sell their land away. The people of Borneo have been living off the land in the form of rice paddies and other forms of agriculture for hundreds and hundreds of years. You might call them savages, and perhaps, savages they may be (although it was fashionable to them to resist by force of arms the coercive taxation schemes of petty despots and monarchs long before the American revolution), but it was their property, and it was not the State’s to sell, and not the Corporation’s to deforest.

It is the basic right of homesteading: that because land is scarce, property rights come from the use of that land for productive purposes. If someone takes over some land and puts it to use it becomes their property. Homesteading is basically the cornerstone of Western civilisation and laissez-faire Liberalism.

How would you like it if you spent eighty years growing a really nice tree in your back garden only for the State to sell your back garden to a logging corporation who swiftly fells the tree. Why, you ask, did this happen? “For the benefit of national development of the economy and the greater good?” The real truth is that Governments never benefit the national development of an economy when they abuse property rights. And if it were the case that the Government could “benefit the development of the national economy” by taking people’s property and selling it to environment-destroying Corporations – whose to say they can only sell land? Why can’t they come and confiscate your computer, or your books, or your bed, or your football posters – they are, after all, your property, which you have a sovereign right to own.

And economically, you might claim that a system of enforced land property rights would be intolerable – it would vastly increase the costs of production, after all, and make timber and anything related to wood much much more expensive. This theory is problematic. The Government owns the land and it rents it out or sells it to corporations at whatever price it thinks is right – yet, you and I know for sure that in every system in human history where the Government has rationed scarce resources, there has at some point or another been a shortage.

If we consider the concept of long run supply and short run supply, usually this is not as devastating as I am going to claim it will be, because the system can be changed and the good that is in a shortage can be produced more. Of course, this isn’t an argument for price and wage controls – the Government can never have the full market information to correctly set prices without achieving some kind of horrific market distortion. Nonetheless, in this area, it’s even worse: why?

Because the amount of land on the Earth can not grow. We can not produce a hundred square acres more of forestry every day like we could produce a hundred more radios a day. Yes, ok, land can be reclaimed from the sea and trees can be planted, but there is every indication that at the current rate that forested land is being rationed by the Government to logging corporations, we will be out of trees far sooner than the effects of any large-scale tree planting. Make no mistake, if there is a shortage in trees because they have been incorrectly rationed, there will be no more trees. And then prices will skyrocket, far higher than under any other alternative. That, unfortunately, though, is the predictable future for this planet.

If we want our children to inherit sustainable forests, we must enforce a free market in land: the people who live and work on the land must be given ownership rights rather than the Government. Only then will the correct market rationing exist and as close as possible to an equilibrium can occur in the amount of trees planted compared to the amount of trees chopped down. A tribe who have worked on and lived off a hundred square acre plot of land are not going to chop it all down in an instant. That is not their way. And even if it was, who’s to say that the land would be the Government’s to seize? Is the State obliged to seize all “strategic resources?”

And any land not used by locals can be sold off to the Government to the highest bidder. Whether this is greenpeace or a logging corporation is irrelevant. No logging corporation will immediately use up all its resources if it understands that the price of future land is going to be much higher. In conclusion, a sustainable system of logging and forestry management is impossible only when the Government controls and rations the land upon which trees, or any other natural resource, are found.

571dffss