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Hayek, the Business Cycle and the Financial System

Hayek is difficult to read.  Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle, published originally in 1929, is convoluted, torturous, complicated, et cetera.  Synonyms of these words would fittingly describe Friedrich Hayek’s writing style.  But, his insights are timeless and any economist interested in knowing and explaining truth is required to read this book.  Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle is one of two books, and several long essays, included in the Ludwig von Mises Institute’s Prices & Production and Other WorksMonetary Theory serves as a primer into Hayek’s monetary and capital theories.  In it, he takes the time to dismember opposing monetary theories of the trade cycle, discarding faulty analysis and maintaining sound foundations, as to lead to his own monetary theory of the trade cycle.  His trade cycle theory, largely based on the headway made in capital theory by Wicksell and Böhm-Bawerk, and Ludwig von Mises’ spectacular insights on monetary theory (The Theory of Money and Credit), is later further developed in Prices & Production, published in 1931.

While reading, you often find yourself stopping and asking yourself what you had just read.  The sentence structure is poorly constructed, and the text is very unclear.  Unless you really take the time to go back, re-read and make sure you understand, it is extremely easy to take what Hayek wrote out of context.  Alternatively, it also rather easy to misinterpret what Hayek wrote.  The topic covered by Friedrich Hayek was controversial (it was, and it still is), and so the temptation to misinterpret him increases by that much more.

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Dan Mitchell: Deficits are Bad, but the Real Problem is Spending

Daniel Mitchell, from the Cato Institute, offers this new educational video on government deficits and spending.  I had the pleasure of listening to Dan Mitchell speak at Cato University 2009, focusing on the existence and justification of tax havens, and the damaging effects of government taxes on entrepreneurship, investment and economic growth.  In this new video, he provides us with a valuable and all-important lesson:

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Football, Human Action and Economic Planning

Over at the Ludwig von Mises Institutes’ blog, Christopher Westley shares an anecdote from Franklin Foer’s How Soccer Explains the World.  It deals with how Ukrainian manager Valeri Lobanovsky attempted to manage Ukrainian football with a similar style as Soviet economic planning.  In defense of football and individualism, I commented with the following:

Christopher,

For me football (a.k.a. “soccer”) provides the perfect example of individual, and unpredictable, human action. Although the sport includes set piece plays, and specific maneuvers, ultimately the success of a team will depend on individual human action. That is what makes football such an exciting sport to watch—it is unpredictable. Although coordination is also a key component, and therefore prediction and analysis can be considered a component, these quantitative characteristics can only accurately be applied on the individual level. It proves useless to apply these to some type of aggregate.

If Valeri Lobanovsky’s model is still in use in Ukraine—by, at least, the national team—it is no wonder that apart from the 2006 World Cup the Ukraine National Football Team has been unable to preform as well as either the Russian national team, or the even more successful national teams in Western Europe (although, it was FC Shakhtar Donetsk who won the Europa League last year).

The opening match for Ukraine’s 2006 World Cup group serves as the perfect illustration for my point. It was between Ukraine and Spain. Although Spain was hardly in the same shape it is today, the characteristic Spanish style of football still permeated the squad. Ukraine lost their match against Spain, 4–0 (Ukraine won their next two group stage matches, but these were against entirely substandard teams).

Ukraine’s mathematical approach to the game could not compete against Spain’s more individualistic approach. Although Spain’s style relies heavily on coordination and cooperation, these elements only exist because Spanish players have learned to coordinate and cooperate on the individual level. They do not follow some type of “master plan” or “scientific method”; instead, they rely on individual skill and individual understanding, based upon years of experience with playing with each other.

While some may try to cheat nature and apply some type of metric to football, the sport is really a shining example of human action outside of the world of strict economics.

Into the World of Objectivism

I never thought that I would ever read anything by Ayn Rand.  Although I recognize her support of the free-market, and her important contributions to libertarian theory, I have never been persuaded by the objectivist argument.  This is especially true when economists such as Alan Greenspan tried to apply objectivism to value.  I have always thought that spending my time continuing my self-education in Austrian economics (given that my education in mainstream economics is already being fulfilled by means of my college career) was more worthwhile.  To that end, I have five books that are reading priorities during the next six months.  I touched upon these in an earlier blog post, but they are: Prices & Production (well, it’s Prices & Production with other short books on monetary theory by Friedrich Hayek), A History of Money and Banking in the United States (Murray Rothbard), The Theory of Credit and Money (Ludwig von Mises), Free Banking (Larry Sechrest) and Making Poor Nations Rich (Benjamin Powell (ed.)).  Well, guess what: I have decided to add Ayn Rand’s magnum opus, Atlas Shrugged.

Atlas Shrugged is commonly cited, and seems to have gained popularity since the onset of the recession, so I figure that I might as well get acquainted with it.  It is fairly long, and I already have a lot of on my plate, but perhaps it will be worth my time (hopefully!).  Depending on when it arrives through the mail, I plan to read it in February, which might mean that I will have to temporarily drop Rothbard’s A History of Money and banking in the United States (unless both prove easier to read than Hayek’s Prices & Production, and so allow me to finish them at a quicker pace [Hayek’s book is poorly written, even if it is of the utmost importance in regards to monetary and capital theory]).  Given that Atlas Shrugged is such a popular book, I am bound to get at least one passing visitor who has read the book.  Did you enjoy it?  What do you believe I should look for?  How would I get the most out of the novel?  Thank you, in advance (although, I will probably thank you after, as well)!

Apart from Atlas Shrugged, I have a few more books coming through the mail.  Recently, I added Where Keynes Went Wrong and Contra Keynes and Cambridge to my personal library of economics books (well, to be fair, at this moment it is a rather small library, but I guarantee that by the end of this year I will break one hundred books).  Atlas Shrugged is one of two books in a box set I ordered.  The other book is Fountainhead, which I will try to read down the road (much to my chagrin, the dimensions of each book are smaller than I would like, but in a box set it will probably look sufficiently aesthetic on my bookshelf).  With the order, to take advantage of free shipping, I also ordered Israel Kirzner’s The Economic Point of View.  Finally, I received a coupon for 33% off any Borders item, and so I decided to use it to buy Hayek’s Trend in Economic Thinking (probably too inexpensive of a choice to really use a 33% off coupon, but I wasn’t thinking at the time).  So, soon enough, I will add four more books to my shelf, meaning I will have accumulated fifty-seven books on the topic since February 2009.

I also have two new non-economics related books.  One of them is Buddy Levy’s Conquistador, which does not look like the best book on the subject, but will do as a primer (it has to do only with Spanish operations against the Aztecs).  I am looking forward to focus on Spanish economic history, from the Romans to modern economic history (with special emphasis on the history of the Catholic Kings and the Spanish Empire up to the mid-17th century and then the Franco period).  But, this is a long term goal, after I feel satisfied with my general introductory research on basic monetary and capital economic theory (introductory because I will have to re-read the books I am currently reading in the future, in order to truly understand and remember them).

It is a shame that there are too many books to read, and too little time to read them in.

Positivism, Statistics and Questionable Accuracy

Constantly reading criticism of Professor Paul Krugman must be getting old.  Admittedly, it is difficult to avoid, given that he is one of the most well known Neo-Keynesian economists who actively posts on the blogosphere, and probably one of the most influential overall.  Today, however, he brings up a good argument, although he probably analyses it with a far too partisan method.  He refers to an article published in National Affairs, by Jim Manzi, called “Keeping America’s Edge”.  Manzi relies on evidence which suggests that since 1970 “Europe” (including the former Eastern Bloc) suffered a loss in productivity equal to a change from 40% of global productivity to 25%.  Since the article was published, there has been a great deal of criticism revolving around the statistics in question.  Apparently, Jim Manzi’s statistics are not as accurate as he would like you to believe.

Paul Krugman uses the news as a way of critiquing conservatives who consistently grapple for evidence to prove theories that they accept as correct without question.  He is undoubtedly correct on this point (not so much on his second conclusion, which is that the evidence suggests that Europe has not had the productivity decline that the “right-wing” suggests—it depends on the specific European country in question, and Europe should not be treated as a homogenous mass with a single macroeconomic policy).  However, I fear that by attacking the right-wing, he overlooked a much more important lesson.

To this end, I responded by saying:

Dear Dr. Krugman,

Although I partly agree with your conclusion—that assertions “ingrained on the right” are not often enough questioned—I do not think that that should be the real moral of the story.

The moral of the story is that historians, economists, and all professions and areas of studies which rely on empiricism, should do a better job at verifying statistics. More time should be allotted to making sure that the evidence presented is accurate and correct. This is especially true when most of these fields are positivist in nature—poor statistics collection can lead to poor conclusions.

I am not sure if a “praxeological”, or non-positivist, is inherently superior, and I am not sure that I am willing to make that argument (nor do I think that the argument is especially pertinent or relevant to my general point). I digress however, fearing that I am spinning a broken record.

— Jonathan Finegold Catalán

Although I look to avoid an argument over positivism versus non-positivism, or antipositivism, as it is neither my area of expertise nor a subject which is really relevant to my overall argument, I admit that it could be taken as a jab or a cheap shot.  I do feel that there is no room for positivism in the scholarship of economics, but I recognize that the majority of professionals probably disagree with me.

But, I feel that my general conclusions are correct.  That is, that all social scientists and scientists who rely on empiricism should place more effort in guaranteeing the accuracy of their statistics.  Bad statistics can lead to bad conclusions, and while Jim Manzi’s inaccuracies were recognized early down the road, society is not always as fortunate.  Sometimes, it could take several decades for empirical evidence to be reviewed and corrected.

Krugman on Stimulus Size

In a recent blog post, titled Payrolls and Paradigms, Professor Paul Krugman makes the case that current unemployment figures seem to suggest that the “pessimist” in government, or those who believed that the stimulus should have been larger than what it ultimately was, were correct.  Although any reader probably already has a clear idea on the basic direction of my beliefs in this case, the criticism I presented in my response on his blog was probably different than most expect.  Enough has been said to disprove the idea that expansionary fiscal policy can positively effect the economy, and so to continue on the subject seems fruitless.  Instead, my aim is to bring up the superiority in theory over empiricism.  My comment, no doubt, was influenced by last night’s reading of Hayek’s Prices & Production and Other Works:  F.A. Hayek on Money, the Business Cycle, and the Gold Standard.  I have just started, and although the reading is quite difficult (Hayek’s writing style is not very modern, and seems very Germanic) I have been immediately influenced (his point on theory versus empiricism is clearer than Rothbard’s in America’s Great Depression):

Dear Dr. Krugman,

How to do you pretend to establish exactly how much stimulus an economy needs?  Whether one economist suggests spending $1 trillion, and another $2 trillion, both economists ultimately pull these figures out of thin air.  There is no logic behind these exact numbers, and one cannot judge the validity of these figures based upon any empirical research (we could go as far as to accept Nobel laureatPrices & Productione Friedrich Hayek’s belief that no theory could be judged valid based on empirical evidence—see Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle).

The opinion that current events suggest that the stimulus should be greater seems to be entirely based on the a priori belief that greater government spending leads to higher productivity, at least in the event of a liquidity trap.  But, based on the same empirical evidence one could also say that fiscal stimulus is entirely ineffective.

I did not come here to argue against stimulus.  Instead, I merely aim to make you aware of the fact that empirical evidence cannot accurately provide the information on what direction to take from this point.  When economists, such as yourself, decide to pull out arbitrary figures, largely based on conclusions derived from empiricism, they lose much of their reputation.  Fiscal policy cannot be decided by taking statistics and then deciding direction based on beliefs assumed to be correct, but are really a posteriori, because there is obviously no sound theoretical backing.  If there was, then the figures presented would be less arbitrary.

I can only conclude by saying that if the debate on the size of the stimulus was really between the two camps you illustrate, then both camps are wrong.  If that is the case, then this country is truly doomed.

There is no Justification for Special War Powers

Robert Higgs once said, “War and liberty are absolute opposites.”  War is inherently a zero-sum game, where some win and some lose.  Well, more accurately, some win and many more lose.  It requires a necessary expansion of government powers, and even if the war is small enough to only have a minor impact on freedoms in the attacking country, tyranny of the worst kind is forcefully imposed on the people of the country in which the war is taking place.  The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, for example, came with a dramatic curbing of individual freedoms in the United States, and not much has to be said about the prospects of liberty in Iraq and Afghanistan proper.  Certainly, Saddam’s rule of terror has ended in Iraq.  But Saddam was merely replaced by regime uncertainty, civil war, occupation, greater poverty and terror brought about by the religious zealots who make up the insurgency.  Except perhaps for benefits to a few special interest groups, there is absolutely nothing good that comes from war.

Yet, although most will agree with this premise, the topic of war and national defense remains heated and difficult.  Even libertarians are having trouble deciding on their own stances.  John Dennis, running for California’s 8th District’s representation in the House of Representatives, seems to have a clear cut vision of the topic of war—the president’s war powers should be eliminated and all foreign bases should be dismantled.  There are, however, a number of “hot topics” which John Dennis does not touch upon in the review of his policy on his website.  These topics are:  the role of the president under the threat of imminent attack, the scenario of retaliation and the size of the military.  For the sake of brevity, this discussion focuses on the first two.  In the case of the latter, it should be obvious that the current size of our military is unnecessary—a reduction in the armed forces should be a priority after the end of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, in an effort to reduce government spending.  But, more pertinent at the current time remains the role of the president under the threat of imminent attack and in the case of necessary retaliation.  To be frank, the conclusion drawn here is that the president serves no role in either scenario Continue reading →

San Diego State Libertarians: Objectives for the new year

A new year is upon us, and many of us have ambitious New Year resolutions for 2010.  For many of us, these resolutions and objectives revolve around the San Diego State Libertarian group, which has really yet to sprout.  How poetic that the opportunity to do just this comes during the spring semester.  The seed has, at least, been planted through Facebook networking (SDSU Young Americans for Liberty and SDSU Libertarians—really, one in the same).  There are some rudimentary steps yet to take, but these should be completed in due time over the opening weeks of the spring semester.  For the most part, we should be looking at marketing the club (whatever we ultimately decide to call it) and its message—we should be looking at guiding it through an early growth period, so that it can fully flower during the Fall 2010 semester.  Towards this goal, we should set a number of objectives and checkpoints to motivate us and guide us.  These can be discussed in depth face to face during our first meeting of 2010—this will materialize sometime in the second-half of January 2010 Continue reading →

Bubble Economics

Paul Krugman continues his critique of Ben Bernanke, and tries to blame the Federal Reserve for looking at a country-wide mean housing price index.  Although not pertinent to my response, I am sure we can all recall that Paul Krugman did not do much of a better job forecasting the impending bubble.  In fact, his explicit support for low interest rates and bubble economics has already been annotated elsewhere.  Irregardless, without further adieu, my comment:

Dr. Krugman,

Too much emphasis is put on the “housing bubble”, as if it is the only type of bubble to look out for. All the while, only a few are pointing out the bubble being created in certain commodities in China, and completely missing the commodities and securities bubble forming in the United States. At this point, a new housing bubble is probably a decade or more away, and instead economists should be focusing on the origins of the bubble.

I am not bought by the existing mainstream explanation—greed and speculation. All human action is driven by greed; it does not explain why failure occurred amongst a significant aggregate of the human population. Nor does it address the bubble which took place in the capital-goods necessary for the housing industry. Not to revert to an “Austrian defense”, but I genuinely believe that a closer look should be taken at the relationship between the expansion of fiduciary media and the relative prices of different order capital-goods to consumer-goods and each other. This relationship, a lynch pin of Austrian economics, merits further and wider analysis.

Nor does the “Taylor Rule” argument make much sense to me. I agree with your previous post that the Taylor Rule is nonsensical on the basis that it derives the “correct interest rate” based on a largely arbitrary formula, using largely arbitrary constants. However, that is not to say that I agree with the idea that the Federal Reserve should have perpetually lowered interest rates, or that the rate found by the Federal Reserve was the most correct. They both seem entirely arbitrary, and empirically derived, to me. It makes even less sense to correlate this evidence with empirical evidence from the housing market.

My point is that economists—from all schools of thought—are looking too deep into the current crisis as a means to extrapolate information to avoid future crises of the same nature. In the short-run, at least, bubbles will form in entirely different industries. By examining the housing industry in the fashion that you seem to be doing so, I am not sure that you will reveal any important information which will help avert future disaster. Rather, I see an opposite trend—you are helping further the crisis, by ignoring very big, and negative, signals in the credit markets.

— Jonathan Finegold Catalán

Money and Capital: A Reply

[This is F.A. Hayek's response to Sraffa's criticism of Prices and Production.]

1.  With an article devoted to a critical discussion of my Prices and Production, Mr. Sraffa has recently entered the arena of monetary controversy. There is no denying the fact that reviewing books on money, at a time when monetary theory is in a state of violent fermentation, is not an easy, and perhaps not even a pleasant, task. I can easily understand Mr. Sraffa being a little upset at having spent so much time on a work from which he has obviously derived no profit and which appears to him merely to add to the prevailing confusion of thought on the subject. But it seems to me that, in expressing indignation without making his own position quite clear, he has run the risk of doing himself less than justice and of taContra Keynes and Cambridgeking up a position which is, to say the least, somewhat confused. I am not anxious to indulge in controversy for its own sake. But it seems to me that, in replying to Mr. Sraffa’s strictures, I may be able, not only to defend myself against what appear to me to be needless misunderstandings, but also to make clearer certain matters which do present, to use Mr. Robertson’s phrase, ” appalling intellectual difficulty.” Hence I have asked the Editors of this journal to give me space for reply.

Mr. Sraffa objects that I tried to say too much in four lectures, but his criticism really demands that I should have said a great deal more. In fact, many of his objections concern points which are implied rather than specifically developed in Price and Production, this being partly due to the fact that I had discussed them in some detail elsewhere and partly to the fact that I thought that they must be sufficiently clear to an economist without further elaboration. In a short reply it is obviously impossible to discuss the relation between the general theory of equilibrium and the theory of money-one of the points on which Mr. Sraffa disagrees with my method of approach. Fortunately, however, a translation of my earlier treatment 2 of these prolegomena to a discussion of the role of money in the theory of industrial fluctuations has just been completed, and will be published before very long; so that I hope I may be permitted to refer Mr. Sraffa to this book for a reply to his methodological criticisms, and to ask him to return to the points which I do not discuss here should he still feel dissatisfied

If he does so, I should also like to ask him to define his own attitude to these problems more clearly than he has yet done. From his article one gains the impression that his attitude is a curious mixture of, on the one hand, an extreme theoretical nihilism which denies that existing theories of equilibrium provide any useful description of the non-monetary forces at work; and, on the other hand, of an ultra-conservatism which resents any attempt to show that the differences between a monetary and a non-monetary economy are not only, and not even mainly, ” those characteristics which are set forth at the beginning of every text-book on money.” I am, however, not quite sure whether Mr. Sraffa has perceived that the refutation of this idea is one of the central theses of my book. What he certainly has not seen-though I should have thought that this was a rather obvious point-is where the essential differences between a monetary and a non-monetary economy are to be sought. I have been assuming that the body of existing pure economic theory demonstrates that, so long as we neglect monetary factors, there is an inherent tendency towards an equilibrium of the economic system; and what I tried to do in Prices and Production, and in certain earlier publications, was to show that monetary factors may bring about a kind of disequilibrium in the economic system-which could not be explained without recourse to these monetary factors. I do not quite understand whether Mr. Sraffa thinks that, in order to show this, it would have been necessary first to re-state the whole of equilibrium economics. I thought that this was not only impossible within the limits of a small book, but also quite unnecessary Continue reading →

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